Time for a salary cap, Major League Baseball?

Now that the LCS has been set for Major League Baseball, its a good time to look back at the season that was and see what we can learn.

At the midway point, I wrote that baseball was struggling attendance wise, with a comparative drop of almost 6% from the midway point last season.  And now that the season is done, and baseball’s final report card is out?  The final attendance decrease comes in at right around 6.5%.

Major League Baseball is projected to suffer a 6.5% attendance drop, its biggest single-season loss since Harry Truman was president, excluding years involving a work stoppage.

Twenty teams have had an attendance decline entering the season’s final week — including five teams by more than 20% — according to calculations by Baseball-reference.com. The Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers are the only teams boasting 10% or greater increases. (via USA Today)

Unsurprisingly, MLB commissioner Bud Selig is not worried.

Despite the biggest downturn since 1952, Commissioner Bud Selig said he was elated that MLB was projected to attract about 75.2 million fans — the fourth most in baseball history.

“Given that we are in the worst economic recession since the Great Depression,” Selig said, “it is stunning. This year is a great testament to the huge popularity of our sport.”

Selig’s excitement and the economic recession aside, one has to wonder if baseball is actually in trouble for the long-term.  A closer look at the attendance records tells the story…(from the same USA Today article)

Team-by-team attendance

Inside the gates
Of the 30 teams, 19 teams (excludes the Mets) have seen an decrease in attendance from 2008 to 2009. Baseball executives are watching the turnstiles as closely as they are the box scores this season, with attendance down 6.5% compared the same number of home games at each park a year ago. Team-by-team: (figures through Monday)
Team	Games	Total attendance	Average attendance	Games	Total attendance	Average attendance	Percent change
Arizona	80	2,474,016	30,925	80	2,098,747	26,234	-15.2%
Atlanta	75	2,288,475	30,513	75	2,177,503	29,033	-4.8%
Baltimore	78	1,912,143	24,515	78	1,849,019	23,705	-3.3%
Boston	75	2,823,091	37,641	75	2,837,780	37,837	0.5%
Chic. Cubs	74	3,013,941	40,729	74	2,953,812	39,916	-2.0%
Chic, White Sox	81	2,460,749	30,380	81	2,284,163	28,200	-7.2%
Cincinnati	75	1,948,257	25,977	75	1,650,336	22,004	-15.3%
Cleveland	79	2,095,934	26,531	79	1,749,370	22,144	-16.5%
Colorado	78	2,535,883	32,511	78	2,546,430	32,647	0.4%
Detroit	74	2,938,147	39,705	74	2,320,658	31,360	-21.0%
Florida	81	1,335,076	16,482	81	1,464,109	18,075	9.7%
Houston	80	2,779,487	34,744	80	2,521,076	31,124	-9.3%
Kansas City	81	1,578,922	19,493	81	1,797,891	22,196	13.9%
L.A. Angels	78	3,206,087	41,104	78	3,122,618	40,034	-2.6%
L.A. Dodgers	78	3,584,303	45,953	78	3,601,597	46,174	0.5%
Milwaukee	81	3,068,908	37,888	81	3,037,451	37,499	-1.0%
Minnesota	78	2,190,743	28,086	78	2,222,127	28,489	1.4%
N.Y. Mets	78	3,881,523	49,763	78	3,055,282	39,170	-21.3%
N.Y. Yankees	79	4,189,383	53,030	79	3,627,608	45,919	-13.4%
Oakland	78	1,597,650	20,483	78	1,361,099	17,450	-14.8%
Philadelphia	75	3,170,768	42,277	75	3,330,012	44,400	5.0%
Pittsburgh	81	1,609,076	19,865	81	1,577,853	19,480	-1.9%
San Diego	76	2,284,801	30,063	76	1,791,226	23,569	-21.6%
San Francisco	78	2,752,077	35,283	78	2,776,657	35,598	0.9%
Seattle	75	2,198,471	29,313	75	2,059,279	27,457	-6.3%
St. Louis	78	3,298,712	42,291	78	3,211,480	41,173	-2.6%
Tampa Bay	75	1,626,161	21,682	75	1,761,856	23,491	8.3%
Texas	81	1,945,677	24,021	81	2,156,016	26,617	10.8%
Toronto	81	2,399,786	29,627	81	1,876,129	23,162	-21.8%
Washington	79	2,297,101	29,077	79	1,773,668	22,451	-22.8%
TOTAL	2,340	75,485,348	32,332	2,340	70,592,852	30,220	-6.5%
Note: The Yankees and Mets opened new stadiums. The percent full capacity at Mets’ Citi Field is higher in 2009 than 2008, but overall attendance down because the stadium has about 15,000 fewer seats.

Forget about exciting baseball in September…what about exciting baseball in April? Perennial underachievers like Baltimore, Washington, Toronto, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Oakland gave their fans nothing to be excited about…and it showed.

One of the reasons it seems as if the NFL is able to stay popular is due to the parity in the league.  Every year it seems as almost every team has the chance to make the playoffs; which keeps their fans interested in the team.  In baseball? parity is non-existent.  You essentially see the same handful of teams in the playoffs every year: Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, Phillies/Mets…parity only exists in the central divisions of each league.

So, if parity is one of the keys of long term stability, and I’m convinced that it is, how does baseball create it?

A salary cap?

Before I go any further, I’m sure somebody is saying “Baseball has existed for years without parity, why is it such a necessity now?”

Parity isn’t a necessity; baseball did still bring in 75 million fans and will probably exceed 7 billion in revenue, but businesses are usually in the business of maximizing revenue…baseball is a business…you get the picture.

The Yankees 2009 payroll was roughly $210 million dollars.  The Pirates 2009 payroll? $54 million.  Sure, revenue sharing is in place, and luxury taxes are in effect, blah, blah, blah…it is not helping.  Baseball needs a salary cap to help level the playing field so that the smaller market teams become more than AAA farm teams for the larger market teams (“serviceable”  players the Pirates have released in recent memory to due rebuilding/general lack of money: Jason Bay, Aramis Ramirez, Esteban Loaiza, Nate McLouth, Mike Gonzalez, Oliver Perez, Bronson Arroyo,  Tim Wakefield…the list goes on).  Whenever the Yankees can spend the equivalent of the Pirates entire payroll on 3 players?  How do the Pirates compete?  Or how do they keep any semblance of a team together for more than a season or two?

They don’t.

And no, a salary cap isn’t a perfect solution, and yes, sometimes a salary cap can further expose mismanaging by upper management or exacerbate the problem of poor coaching.  On the other hand, baseball’s lack of a salary cap requires every small market team to play the perfect season, every season, less they find themselves 20 games out of the playoff hunt.

So which scenario is better?  Especially for the long term?  Not that I think it will happen, but what if we see a 5 year depression in America, and not a 2 year recession?

I think a little parity would be a welcome commodity then…a salary cap could be one of the ways we could see that happen.

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