Is the NFL dead?
It’s the two words that all sports fans fear, even if they don’t understand the reasons for their occurrence. “Strike” and “Lockout”.
The NFL owners officially notified the players union, on Tuesday, that they will opt out of the current CBA, which potentially leads to an 2010 season without a salary cap (read this either as: the NFL will never be the same again or “all hell breaking loose”) and a possible lockout in 2011.
The current deal, as most know, was expected to last until after the 2012 season, but both sides had an opportunity to opt out after the 2011 season, as long as their intentions were stated by November of this year. My first thought? Could that be more convoluted? You’re in a six year contract that you can terminate after the fifth year, but only if you state your intention to terminate…in year 3? Do the owners and the players union really need three years to negotiate a new CBA? Is the current CBA so incredibly one sided that it will take more than 1,000 days of negotiation to fix it? Surely, Commissioner Goodell can allay my fears, right?
“We have guaranteed three more years of NFL football,” commissioner Roger Goodell said after the owners used the opt-out clause built into the agreement signed more than two years ago. “We are not in dire straits. We’ve never said that. But the agreement isn’t working, and we’re looking to get a more fair and equitable deal.”
Um…that wasn’t exactly what I had in mind. Maybe Gene Upshaw, the head of the players union, will tell me something to make it all better!
“All this means is that we will have football now until 2010 and not until 2012,” Upshaw added during a conference call. “We will move ahead. This just starts the clock ticking. If we can’t reach agreement by 2010, then we go to no man’s land, which is 2011.”
Riiiiiight. Thanks guys. So is football really in trouble? Well, after those “reassuring” words from the heads of the two sides involved, I have to be at least a little worried. The main fear for the average sports fan is that football will quickly turn into baseball; teams that can spend money will be competitive and the smaller market teams (i.e. my poor Pittsburgh Pirates in baseball) will go on sub-.500 streaks for 16+ years. But, as Pat Kirwan points out in a great article over at NFL.com, the CBA has some safeguards in place to help protect the small market teams
The one factor fans have heard the most about is that 2010 and 2011 would be “uncapped” years. But there are three main trigger points that will go off in 2010 if there isn’t a new CBA in place, and they may offset the fear of life with no salary cap. They are: 1) free agency will require six years of service (instead of four years in 2010 and five years in 2011); 2) teams will have three tags to use to restrict free agents instead of one tag, as they do now; and 3) teams that go deep in the playoffs could have some spending restrictions.
Kirwan makes a good, albeit overly optimistic argument. The idea that teams will get three tags is a nice idea, but, the tag idea is only beneficial to a small market team if the “non-exclusive” tag option still exists. (quick recap: The exclusive franchise player must receive a 1 year contract for an amount equal to or greater than the average of the top five salaries at that position for the current year. The non-exclusive franchise player receives the same sort of contract, but its based on the previous year’s salary and the player can negotiate with other teams. If they sign with another team, the original team is compensated with two first round draft picks). Small market teams won’t have the money to over-pay a player in the average of the top five salaries at their position and the non-exclusive tag won’t be an option because the NFL draft would end after the 2011 season if a new agreement is not put in place. Without the tag option, all you’ve really done is ensure that big revenue teams may have to wait a few years before buying a championship, or that they’ll alternate between championships with another big revenue teams…long gone will be the days of the small market championship.
That being said, why would those small to medium market owners ever opt out of the current CBA? ESPN’s John Clayton has the answer.
…Upshaw said Goodell’s e-mail listed three reasons for the early termination: high labor costs, problems with the rookie pool and the league’s inability, through the interpretation of the courts, to recoup bonuses of players who subsequently breach their contract or refuse to perform.
I’ve already discussed the rookie contract issue previously (note: the NFLPA says the rookie contracts actually help set the bar for veterans contracts, not cause owners to over pay rookies) and the issues with trying to recoup bonus money from Michael Vick (although the outcome has changed since my article). The point? It seems that both sides have legitimate complaints. Rookie contracts are too high, and the players association already gets the lion share of NFL revenues, but at the same time, how can the owners possibly expect the players to take a smaller cut of the revenue when both sides negotiated the 60% that the players currently receive and how can you blame the players for rising stadium costs and financing expenses? At the end of the day it seems that both sides are at an impasse and regardless of Goodell’s statement that the owners opted out early just to “get the ball rolling”, the average football fan has to be very concerned for his favorite sport.
But even beyond the fans, what about the economy? Football as a whole generates a lot of revenue, just last week I mentioned NBC’s Super Bowl Ad sales, there’s revenue on NFL merchandise, video games, jobs for stadium workers, drivers, charter airlines…I vaguely even remember a whole network dedicated to the NFL being started (although you may not get it in your area, zing!). Football in America has created its own sub-economy, and more than not being able to watch your favorite team on Sunday, football or the lack thereof, can ultimately effect many more people than Goodell or Upshaw can even imagine.
So, here’s to hoping a deal gets worked out. I won’t get my hopes up, but that’s mainly because I’m pessimistic. Truth be told though, what are the chances this gets put on the back burner until the summer of 2012? Even when football isn’t being played, it looks like the NFL will still be able to hold my attention.
NFL.com: Uncapped years will actually limit free agency
ESPN: NFL owners vote unanimously to opt out of labor deal
Sports Business Digest: Jump Off Point for Super Bowl Ads? $3 Million Dollars
Category: Football
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I think it will all get worked out. I have a lot of confidence that Roger Goodell will be able to bring people together.
This was a boneheaded move to “go public” and back out of the agreement early. There’s no league without the players and they’re not gonna give back the 60%, and rightly so. Somebody better see the ship headed for the rocks right now and start working on a new deal this year.