So…all of that got me thinking…what about some sports business predictions before the start of the season?  In keeping with the logic of the football prognosticators, my predictions will either be completely obvious, or it will be a lot of hunches drawn from inconclusive evidence.

Perfect!

So, without further ado, my sports business predictions for the upcoming football season.

1. Blackouts will become more commonplace.

For those who don’t know the rules regarding when a viewer in a local football area can’t watch that game on television, some info, via Washington Post

Under NFL rules, a game cannot be televised in the local market of the home team unless it is sold out 72 hours before kickoff. Last season, 247 of 256 regular season games leaguewide — 96 percent — aired in the local market of the home team.

That figure has been at least 95 percent in each of the last four seasons — including a record 97 percent in the 2006 season, when 249 of 256 regular season games were televised in the home team’s market.

Only general admission tickets count toward the sellout standard for a local TV blackout to be lifted, not club seats or suite tickets.

Armed with that information, why will blackouts become more commonplace in 2009? In short, some of the small market, poor performing teams do not sell out their games.  In the past, corporate sponsors would step in and buy the remaining tickets when a black out was imminent.  Unfortunately now, due to the still suffering economy, the likelihood of corporate sponsors shelling out money that they do not have is highly unlikely.  Therefore, the potential for blackouts are increased.  Throwing salt in that open wound? Local stations are probably leaning heavily on picking up additional ad revenue from the local football games (which bring in the lionshare of that particular game’s ratings), especially during a recession.  So, having an outlook where ratings for football games have dropped due to blackouts and local stations lose ad revenue due to blackouts…not the most auspicious beginning to the 2009 season.

2. Every NFL fan will learn more labor law terms than they ever thought imaginable

Anyone else remember that whole issue with the “owners opting out of the current CBA, leading to an uncapped 2010 year and potential lock out in 2011?“  2010 being 3 months away, its probably about time we all got around to talking about that stuff, right?  By the time we hit December, even the casual NFL fan will feel like they’re a qualified labor law paralegal, ready to advise anyone on the CBA, the uncapped season, and how to avoid a lockout.

Do I think they’ll get a deal done before we experience armageddon?  Honestly? no. but i’m a pessimist. Which leads to a side prediction…we will go at least one year without an NFL draft, due to the lack of a CBA.

3. Practice jersey sponsorships will become a mainstay.

Everyone remembers when the NFL turned to practice jersey sponsorships and lotteries to generate additional revenue for their clubs, due in part to a sagging economy.  But, I wondered for a minute if these practices will become commonplace or even increase in scope once we see brighter economic futures?  I am predicting that they will.  Now that the NFL has decided to implement this practice (I’m still assuming it was some sort of ethical/moral issue that kept them from it in the first place?) and have experienced the revenue it can generate, is there any possible way that they’ll turn away from it? No.

4. Super Bowl ad prices will drop again next year

At the present time, Super Bowl ads are being sold at 2007 rates, and only 65% of the ads have been sold.  I think that, even if the economy has completely rebounded by the time we reach the 2010 Super Bowl, the ad prices will drop or at least stay stagnant for one more year, and then will continue on their usual upward trend.  Why? I think whoever televises next year’s Super Bowl will have lost a little confidence based on ad sales the past two years.  Because of that, they’ll discount prices slightly.  Lesson? everyone buy super bowl ads next year!

5. The NFL won’t field a team in Europe, although we will hear a lot of talk about it.

A lot of the points for this prediction can be found in the comments on this post by DogFood. If interest in the NFL is that minuscule, but for a yearly game held live in London, this move is not going to happen anytime soon.  But, that doesn’t mean that we won’t hear a lot about it anyway.  Right commish?

Meanwhile, Goodell Tuesday reiterated it is “very possible” the league could base a franchise in another country. Goodell: “It’s realistic to me that we would play multiple regular-season games in London, maybe as early as next year, and if that continues to have the same kind of reaction a team playing in London on a regular basis is a real possibility.” He added the “whole issue for us is how do we grow the game?”  (“The Dan Patrick Show,” 9/8). (Via SportsBusinessDaily)

If the NFL can’t have a sustained presence in Europe, then I do not think they’ll move there, especially in the face of a recession; they’d stretch themselves too thin.  That of course, does not mean though, that they won’t at the very least, try to spin any negative situation into a positive one.  That’s why we’ll continue to hear talk of the Super Bowl in London, or a team there (can you really bring one team? you really need to start 3 teams at once or something…what does that one team do every week? travel back and forth?)