Sep 22, 2009

“People say, ‘Well, Los Angeles won’t support football.’ That is complete garbage.  Fifty-two years ago, 102,000 people showed up for Rams-49ers.”

– NBC’s Al Michaels, in a voice much louder than this writing indicates, on Sunday Night Football

It has been 14 years since professional football was last played in Los Angeles.  And now, there are rumors that we may see the NFL return to the City of Angels as soon as next yearWhen did all of this happen? From the ,

[quotes]John Semcken, project manager for the proposed $800 million NFL stadium in the City of Industry, looked around the ballroom at Big Canyon Country Club on Friday night and hesitated before dropping that provocative possibility into his presentation to the invitation-only audience of Orange County movers and shakers.

“We could have a team here as early as next year,” Semcken said.

OK, now the obligatory fine print.

First, the litigation against the stadium developer — Majestic Realty Co., owned by billionaire Edward Roski Jr., who was also on hand Friday night — has to be settled. (The City of Walnut, and a group of Walnut residents, have filed separate lawsuits against the project, seeking a new environmental-impact study. Negotiations are continuing, with former California attorney general John Van de Kamp mediating.)

“We’re going to be done by the end of September, one way or another, with approval for the stadium,” Semcken said, saying he was confident the state Senate would approve environmental waivers on the project if there isn’t a settlement with litigants by Sept. 29. “Then it’s a matter of which (existing NFL) team is going to come.

[/quotes]

Well, Mr. Semcken is certainly optimistic, isn’t he?  Even if you consider the lawsuit a moot point, there seems to be an even bigger problem that a Los Angeles football team would encounter…Where do we play?

[quotes]“Once we have an approved stadium, we can offer it to the NFL,” Semcken said. “The team could move immediately, play temporarily in the Rose Bowl or play temporarily in the Coliseum … then move into the new building in 2013 when it’s completed.”[/quotes]

Okay…now lets pump the brakes a bit, and slow down.

Come on everyone…this is not going to happen by 2010.  And there is multiple evidence to back up that preceding sentence.  Firstly, what NFL team is going to announce a move to Los Angeles only to play at the Coliseum for three years?  It is a risk.  Sure, you could temporarily play at the Coliseum and start to establish your fan base so they’re ready for a move in 2013…or you could mire yourself in mediocrity for three years, have all the excitement of a new team in Los Angeles already wearing off and then be stuck with a big, shiny, empty stadium.  Even though Los Angeles is the second largest market in the U.S., the murmuring about LA not supporting a team didn’t just appear out of thin air, regardless of what Al Michaels says.  Fans want to watch their team win, even in large markets. Why open yourself up to that risk until absolutely necessary?

Secondly, there is a simple organizational term involved…Escalation of commitment.  Out of the various NFL teams rumored to be a candidate for relocation (Minnesota, Jacksonville, San Diego, etc.), the Jaguars most recently came into existence, which occurred in 1995. 14 years. 14 years of the NFL committing money, time, and resources to Jacksonville…all to be thrown away in the next 11 months without significant efforts to change the situation first? Not likely.  And the Jaguars are the newest team.  How do you justify moving one of the older, more established teams to Los Angeles when they’ve had at least 15 years to build a fan base, and without the team being in completely dire straits?  The NFL has gone all these years without a team in Los Angeles, and now they’re going to rush into it without a completely necessary reason? It doesn’t make sense.  Don’t get me wrong, I certainly think there are teams that are in trouble *cough* Jaguars *cough*, but the 11 month time frame is way too short.

And sure, many can argue, as they undoubtedly are already doing, that Los Angeles has a huge market (which it does) and it will bring increased revenues, blah, blah, blah.  These points have been true for the last 14 years.  And sure, maybe you have a team more willing to pay relocation costs now that it appears that the (a point of contention with Los Angeles NFL teams before), but again…to move in 2010 is nonsensical.  And I think that the logic applied by Semcken is correct; if a team is moving they have to move.  You cannot announce a move today for two years from now…you will have no sponsorships.

And what of the economy?

Strangely enough, it looks like the recession may actually be a hindrance to any NFL team relocation.  Why? Simply put, the recession causes a decrease in revenue.  Lower revenues mean less money to use to cover relocation costs, which leads to an increased desire to not relocate.  The argument being “if it ain’t broke (too much), don’t try to fix it”.  Furthermore, revenues have slowed or will slow down across the league (see: Jerry Jones, the Cowboys stadium, and the fact that the naming rights haven’t been sold).  Team revenues are tied to the league-wide imposed salary cap.  The smaller the increases in the salary cap, the better the chance that small market teams have to compete, competition leads to fan retention, revenue, etc.  Sure, teams like the Jaguars might be struggling now, but what if the salary cap was $200 million as opposed to $127 million? The smaller market teams wouldn’t be able to afford good players (gee, this sounds like baseball.).

The point of this whole thing is that there needs to be a justifiable reason to move a team to LA in the next 11 months; and one doesn’t exist.  Revenue sharing still exists to help keep small market teams competitive, the salary cap isn’t exponentially high, there’s no stadium, and the NFL just doesn’t relocate teams for the hell of it.  We will see an NFL team in Los Angeles at some year in the near future…but 2010 is not that year.

Of course, we could be looking at a completely different situation if there’s no collective bargaining agreement.  No salary cap? Possibly no revenue sharing?

If we get to that point, all bets are off.

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