In labor dispute with the NFL, the referees may have the leverage.

The NFL has officially announced that the regular season would not only begin with replacement officials on the field, but that the NFL is prepared to use them “as much…as necessary” going forward.  League executive Ray Anderson made the official announcement to the NFL’s 32 teams via memo.  Negotiations between the NFL and the NFLRA (NFL Referees Association) are at a standstill.

And the referees may have the NFL right where they want them.

Don’t get it confused, this lockout is nothing like last year’s lockout of the NFL’s players.  That lockout, which was essentially a one-sided affair where the NFL flexed its muscle, was all but decided before it began.  The only thing at issue was how much of the NFL’s revenue pie the NFLPA would be forced to relinquish in order to satisfy the league’s owners.  This lockout, on the other hand may look the same on paper, but there are multiple reasons that it is actually the NFLRA, and not the NFL that can leverage the situation to their benefit.

1.  The replacement officials are learning on the job and are ‘adequate’ at best.

If you’ve taken the time to watch any NFL football this preseason, I can guarantee that you’ve seen a mishap.  A hold that wasn’t called, a block in the back on a kick return, an illegal hit on a quarterback, or maybe your referee ?  These officials are not only missing calls, they’re missing calls that fans can clearly see on television or on in-game instant replays.  They’re getting it wrong, and they are diluting the NFL product, it’s just an argument over the degree of dilution. Human error is expected, yes, but these are officials who are working at the Division II and Division III level.  If NFL fans wanted to see that type of officiating…they’d watch Division II or Division III football.  Furthermore, officials have to adjust to the speed of the NFL game the same way an NFL rookie would.  That difficult adjustment is made even harder when you aren’t even refereeing the division immediately below the NFL; Division I football.  Analogously, these officials are making the jump from high school to NFL starter.  Its not an easy transition.  Oh, by the way, did I mention that the NFL game speeds up even more once the games count?  And the NFL is prepared to use these officials “as much as necessary”? Just checking.

2. Using replacement officials are a complete contradiction to the NFL’s concerns on safety.

Remember the first point where I mentioned the replacement officials were missing calls?  You know who else has noticed the missed calls? The players.  One of the reasons the NFL has been successful in starting to limit safety concerns is that officials have been strictly enforcing the rules over the last year and a half.  That strict enforcement has led to increaesd penalties, player fines and the like.  Through the league’s disciplinary measures and new rule changes, they’re actually teaching the players how to play a safer version of football.  But these rule changes only work if players have the “fear” of being penalized for an illegal play, or if you have experienced referees that can recognize dangerous situations.  As the preseason has shown, the replacement referees have had issues with the basic calls at times; they are not checking for those small nuances that experienced referees notice.  Their lack of experience and their reluctance or ignorance to dole out punishment is a detriment not only to player safety, but to the NFL product as a whole.

3. NFL officials are part-time employees.

In the “regular” job world, full-time positions always trump part-time positions.  It’s not necessarily the case for an NFL referee.  They have jobs outside of the NFL schedule, they are business owners, school teachers and lawyers. Sure, they use the NFL for an extra source of income, but there’s been no indication that they’re relying on the NFL to avoid insolvency.  When asked about the idea of having full-time referees, the NFLRA said that they were “open to the idea, as long as those officials are fairly compensated.” Considering the fact that the officials are already part-time employees, that statement does not lead me to believe that the officials are a group waiting on that NFL game check to pay their bills Under the NFL’s current proposal, they’re asking those officials to give up those outside jobs and become full-time employees.  Which as shown above, is fine, but the NFL is also looking to add more officials (to reduce travel time and work fewer games, according to NFL spokesman Greg Aiello).  More officials potentially equals less pay for some officials, since NFL officials are paid per assignment.  In essence, the NFL is asking referees to give up their ability to make any outside income…and take a pay cut.  Did I fail to mention the league was also looking to freeze, and then eliminate referee pension plans?  It almost sounds too good to be true, right?

4. The cost savings cannot be justified.

With so much back and forth, its hard to put a dollar figure on how far apart the two sides are in their negotiations.  That being said, whatever the cost savings generated by the league has to be of negligible benefit to the league in comparison to the state of the game with replacement referees (some reports have NFL teams saving upwards of $65,000 a year).  The NFL nearly brings in ten billion dollars a year in revenue. Ten Billion.  The money to cover referee salaries could probably be found under most owners couches.  Jeff MacGregor at ESPN makes a perfect point,

If Roger Goodell and the NFL and the NFL owners were serious about player safety and player conduct, for $50 million a year — less than 1 percent of total revenue — they could hire 200 well-trained full-time officials at $250,000 each. (via ESPN)

The NFL currently has 119 part-time referees.  Their average salary last season was $149,000.  Now, am I saying the NFL bow to every whim of the NFLRA and pay them any salary that they desire?  Of course not.  But they have to employ common sense and realize that dealing in ultimatums is not the best way to handle this situation, regardless of the tremendous power wielded by the league.  At the end of the day the NFL owners must ask themselves one question:

Is player safety and an optimum, on-field product worth $65,000 a year?

Many outside the situation believe that the answer to that question is a resounding “yes”.  And that’s why I believe the NFLRA has the leverage in this matter, even though they’re locked out.  If they’re able to bide their time for a few weeks, the NFL will hear the complaints of the NFL fan.  The NFL will realize that they’re putting their players at greater risk for injury during the replacement referee’s growing pains.  The NFL will realize, that while “no one has ever paid for an NFL ticket to watch someone officiate a game” (NFL VP Ray Anderson), people may have an equally large reluctance to pay for an NFL ticket to watch someone poorly officiate a game.  The NFL will realize that a simple compromise will sort out this entire mess and let everyone get back to watching the best football product possible.

Common sense always wins out in the end…Right?